CEOs Debate 2012 Production Volumes
Margaret Baxter, OESA

At the fall CEO Council meeting, CEOs exchanged thoughts and projections for production planning volumes for the balance of 2011 and for 2012.  Many CEOs indicated confidence in a strong finish to the current year, and engaged in debate over 2012 volumes.  Many agreed that the balance between the current economic slump and pent-up demand for new vehicles is one that could tip either way, but that will ultimately drive 2012’s numbers.  When individual CEOs shared their production planning volumes for 2012, the highest number cited was 15 million units, the low was 13 million and the average of the 48 CEOs present was 13.55 million.   

After the CEO discussion, Michael Robinet, director, global production forecasting, IHS Automotive, presented a global auto forecast for 2012 and beyond, with a focus on factors that will influence the “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios.  He further discussed the competitive position of the various OEMs.  The number that he cited for 2012 was 13.7 million – slightly   more optimistic than the CEO group average.  When discussing the need for and difficulty of accurate forecasting, one CEO said “We need to face the fact that we are going to see volatility in production for the next five years at least; the key to managing this is being able to react quickly to changes – either up or down.” 

Additional meeting discussion centered on three presentations that were shared as part of a “CEO Spotlight” series, where CEOs are asked to identify something that they do well within their organizations and share insight on what that is, who it involves, where it adds value and why they are successful.  Dieter Ehrmanntraut, president and CEO, Yazaki North America, Inc., shared comments on Yazaki’s implementation of vertical organization integration, Mark Sullivan, president and CEO, North America Inergy Automotive Systems, shared a presentation on the team industrialization process that the company developed, and Jan Kowal, president, Brose North America, Inc., presented on global transfer of competence.

The CEO Council is open to the top executive in North America responsible for automotive business.  For more information on the council, or to request an invitation to an upcoming meeting, contact Michelle Maki at 248.952.6401 ext. 229 or mmaki@oesa.org.